Manhattan Real Estate Sees 17% Drop in Contracts as Spring Market Slows

It's been a choppy spring in Manhattan. Typically, March is busier than April however, if there's anything we can say about 2025, nothing is normal.

This week, the Manhattan real estate market is showing early signs of encouragement, on pace to potentially have its best in years, but don't get excited yet. While supply remains stable at 6,812 listings (a 2.2% weekly increase and .8% from last year), demand saw a subtle dip to 1,145 – down 0.4% from the week prior however, demand is up 8.9% vs last year. What caught our attention, though, was the 17% drop in weekly contracts signed in March.

As mentioned, April typically cools off compared to the spring energy of March, but with mortgage rates rising (30Y conforming now at 6.81%, 30Y jumbo at 6.91%) and the stock and bond markets both retreating, this isn’t just seasonal—it’s systemic. As much as we like to say that "one week does not a trend make," the drop in activity, accompanied by a rise in mortgage rates and a drop in the stock market, suggests we may see some transactional turbulence in the weeks ahead. Nevertheless, I like to think positive and will take a nice win considering there is positivity in these numbers. I will say there are certain neighborhoods doing VERY well with monthly pending deals up 50% from last year. Want to know which two? Email me [email protected] 

Chart of the Week Insight:
This time, both stocks and bonds were sold off—a rare move that pushed yields up across the board. It's driving mortgage rates higher and widening credit spreads, signaling that liquidity is still there but confidence may be tapering.

Stay tuned. This spring could be anything but predictable.

Advice For Buyers Looking For Apartments in Manhattan in Spring 2025

So far, we do not see any significant leverage change in your favor, as it’s too early; we should wait a few more weeks to see if this changes. If you encounter anxious sellers who are trying to sell property quickly out of fear that this situation may escalate, seize the opportunity. There has been a persistent lack of panic and desperation in this market, making it rare to find substantial discounts on the buy side - these are typically only available on properties that have been sitting for over four months on the market with multiple price cuts. The key to finding good deals in Manhattan is to find properties that have proven higher historical value. There are motivated sellers taking large losses but they certainly aren't everywhere. Working with a seasoned real estate professional can help you uncover these gemstones. 

Advice For Owners Wanting To List Their Apartment For Sale in Manhattan During Spring 2025

Sellers in Manhattan should make sure to price right and capitalize on peak market conditions following a nice increase in deal activity. Now is not the time for aspirational or market-testing pricing strategies. Given the current events, we must consider the possibility that the market strength we've seen over the past month may be temporary. React
accordingly. Accept good offers and contemplate price adjustments if your initial pricing strategy isn’t achieving the desired results. We have until mid-June when the market usually begins its summer slowdown, so take action before this period, hoping that the Spring season maintains the current level of listing activity liquidity.