Is Now the Time to Buy in NYC? Why the National Market Shift Tells a Different Story

By Michael Holt – The Holt Team, Compass

The U.S. housing market is entering new territory. According to a recent Bloomberg article by Orphe Divounguy, Zillow forecasts its Home Value Index will decline 0.8% by the end of the year — the first annual drop since 2011.

Nationally, high mortgage rates and economic uncertainty have kept competition low and inventory levels higher, creating a rare moment of opportunity for buyers. Zillow Senior Economist Orphe Divounguy advises that “for people who can afford to buy right now, I tell them not to try to time the market.” Waiting for a major price drop, he warns, often comes with rising unemployment — making it harder to qualify for a mortgage at all.

But while the national market is just now shifting toward buyers, New York City has been in a buyer-friendly cycle for years. And that’s exactly what makes the current moment so interesting for our market.

NYC: A Market Poised for Change

Unlike much of the country, NYC’s real estate market has been favorable to buyers for several years. Now, we’re seeing activity ramp up:

• Pending sales in Manhattan rose 11% in August compared to the same month last year.

• Spring 2025 transactions jumped nearly 40% year-over-year — the busiest since 2021 and, before that, 2015.

• September marks the start of NYC’s second-busiest season, when inventory typically surges.

For years, buyers in other cities fought bidding wars and paid record prices. In NYC, patient buyers have enjoyed greater negotiating power — and many are now taking advantage of suppressed values before prices have a chance to rise.

Why the Window May Be Closing

The Bloomberg article points out that nationally, 27% of July listings saw price cuts — the highest since January 2018. In NYC, if this fall’s anticipated inventory spike is met with continued strong demand, those kinds of opportunities could narrow quickly.

Add in the possibility of an interest rate cut, and we could see renewed competition and upward pressure on prices heading into 2026.

The takeaway? Whether you’re a first-time buyer or an investor, this could be a strategic moment to enter the NYC market — but the window for negotiating power may not stay open for long.

Final Thoughts

The national story says “be ready.” The NYC story says “the clock is already ticking.”

If you’ve been considering a purchase in New York City, now is the time to evaluate your options, understand your financing, and be prepared to act when the right property comes along.

If you’d like to discuss current opportunities in Manhattan, Brooklyn, or beyond, contact The Holt Team for a tailored market analysis and buying strategy.